Europe knows it needs a massive investment surge to compete, decarbonise, digitalise and defend itself – but its next budget is nowhere near large enough to deliver it. Bruegel estimates that meeting the EU’s major strategic objectives will require about €7 trillion of additional investment between 2028 and 2034.

Europe is preparing to pour billions into giant AI data centres just as the technology underneath them could be changing. The EPC warns that Brussels risks confusing Silicon Valley’s current business model with the infrastructure Europe will actually need for its future AI economy.

Europe built its prosperity on openness. Now that openness is being turned into a weapon. ISPI argues that trade, investment, technology, energy and supply chains have become instruments of geopolitical pressure as the US and China compete and the rules-based trading system weakens.

France has spent 25 years measuring weaknesses in its schools – without finding a convincing way to reverse them. Institut Montaigne argues that PISA 2025 should not become another burst of national alarm followed by another round of reforms and another three years of drift.

The EU’s next budget could be agreed – and still be thrown into turmoil by one powerful member state. DGAP warns that a future French government challenging EU contributions could exploit national ratification rules, demand a rebate or, in the most extreme scenario, simply withhold part of France’s payments.

Washington is pushing Europe towards a security order in which America carries less of the burden. Geopolitical Futures sees US negotiations with Moscow over Ukraine and demands for Europeans to defend themselves as parts of the same strategic shift – responsibility is moving back towards regional powers.

Europe survived a bruising year of transatlantic confrontation, but EUISS warns against believing America’s midterm elections will bring the old relationship back. Washington challenged European allies over Greenland, threatened NATO troop withdrawals and piled pressure on the EU over trade and digital regulation.