Trump’s War Against Iran Is an Illegal War of Choice – and Europeans Should Say So

As the U.S. and Israeli military campaign against Iran escalates in gross violation of international law, there is a growing conviction that European governments must take a firm stand in respect of this conflict.

Why Europe must assert diplomacy but prepare for humanitarian catastrophe is the question examined in detail by Ellie Geranmayeh, senior policy fellow and deputy director of the Middle East and North Africa program at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

Spoiler: Europe cannot do without confronting Trump.

In her opinion, the war unleashed by Trump leaves no doubt that his end goal, at least for now, is regime change. He has essentially left no off-ramps but complete surrender for Iran’s leadership. A cornered Iran is now responding with widespread counter-strikes on all the Persian Gulf countries.

Sadly, a quick end to the war looks quite unlikely for now. The war can also provoke significant security, economic and migratory consequences for Europeans.

Yet, for the moment, they have been strikingly timid in responding to the attacks. The joint statement by France, Germany and the UK did not even dare to specify which states conducted them.

Yet it is quite evident that Europeans and their international partners must mobilize and summon up courage to minimize the consequences of this Middle Eastern war.

The Old World countries should communicate boldly and clearly that this is a war of choice by America, in contravention of the same UN charter the Europeans have themselves invoked to condemn Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine and insist on Greenland’s sovereignty. This position must be made clear and defended at the UN level.

They should work urgently with regional partners, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar and Turkey, to strongly push Trump and Tehran to find a diplomatic way out before the region is pulled into an intractable bloodbath.

They should also be sure to form a coalition-of-the-willing. The new entity should put pressure on the White House, asserting that this military campaign is unlikely to force an Iranian capitulation and rather risks leaving the US responsible for yet another ruined country.

European States should focus on the needs of the Iranian people by condemning indiscriminate attacks on civilians. Importantly, they should also work with Turkey to assess the potential for a major refugee flow out of 100-million-strong Iran that is sure to flood into Europe amid a sustained conflict.

Europeans should act as soon as possible. A delay may be lethal. There are serious fears that Trump, who promised his voters an end to U.S. “forever wars”, has turned his back on that core pillar of the MAGA agenda. The war he began jointly with Israel may have unpredictable consequences.

Even if the USA somehow succeeds in toppling Iran’s leadership, years (if not decades) of chaos probably lie ahead for the country and its people – something similar to the insurgency warfare which plagued Iraq after the American invasion in 2003.

Europe should act right now to prevent all that.